Vurdering af terrortruslen mod Danmark 2021

31.03.2021
(For English press release, please scroll down)

Center for Terroranalyse (CTA) har udarbejdet en ny ”Vurdering af terrortruslen mod Danmark” (VTD) for 2021. Terrortruslen mod Danmark er fortsat alvorlig.
CTA vurderer i VTD 2021, at terrortruslen mod Danmark fortsat er ”alvorlig”, og at militante islamister stadig udgør den væsentligste terrortrussel mod Danmark. Truslen udgår særligt fra personer, der sympatiserer med og inspireres af udenlandske militant islamistiske terrorgrupper, særligt fra Islamisk Stat (IS) og al-Qaida (AQ). 

CTA fremhæver i VTD’en, at hændelser i Danmark og udlandet i 2020, der er blevet opfattet som krænkelser af islam, har været med til at sætte fornyet fokus på både historiske og aktuelle krænkelsessager i Danmark. CTA vurderer derfor, at sager om krænkelser fortsat har et betydeligt potentiale som drivkraft for militante islamister.

”Vi vurderer, at det øgede fokus på sager gennem det seneste år, som er blevet opfattet som krænkelser, generelt kan bidrage til at skærpe terrortruslen mod Danmark og danske interesser i udlandet,” siger Michael Hamann, chef for CTA, og understreger, ”at de såkaldte ”krænkelsessager” kan have meget forskellige forløb, hvor nogle bliver forbigået, mens andre får betydelig opmærksomhed fra militante islamister”.

CTA vurderer, at terrortruslen fra højreekstremister mod Danmark fortsat er i niveauet ”generel”.

”Vi er meget opmærksomme på terrortruslen fra højreekstremister. Truslen fra højreekstremister udgår primært fra personer og mindre grupper, der fortrinsvis mødes, radikaliseres og inspireres i højreekstremistiske netværk og via internettet,” vurderer Michael Hamann.

I den anden ende af det politiske spektrum vurderer CTA, at terrortruslen fra venstreekstremister i Danmark fortsat ligger i niveauet ”begrænset”. 

En række andre forhold kan ifølge CTA også have betydning for terrortruslen i Danmark. 

”Vi har igennem den seneste tid set udviklinger i Danmark og internationalt, som kan have betydning for vores vurdering af terrortruslen mod Danmark. Det gælder bl.a. visse konspirationsteorier og antistatslige bevægelser, som ikke er ulovlige, men som kan indeholde et voldeligt trusselspotentiale, der efter en konkret juridisk vurdering kan have karakter af terror,” siger Michael Hamann.

Politiets Efterretningstjeneste (PET) understreger, at uanset i hvilket område og niveau terrortruslen ligger, kan terror fortsat ramme pludseligt og uden, at der foreligger efterretningsmæssige vurderinger eller indikationer på det. PET arbejder dagligt på at forhindre terror sammen med nationale og internationale partnere.

Covid-19 pandemiens betydning for terrortruslen mod Danmark
CTA vurderer, at covid-19 pandemien ikke er en væsentlig drivkraft for terrorisme i Danmark, og at pandemien og dens håndtering ikke i sig selv har ændret på militante islamisters eller politiske ekstremisters intention om og kapacitet til at begå terrorangreb i Danmark. CTA vurderer det dog som sandsynligt, at covid-19-pandemien har medvirket til at forstærke eksisterende antistatslige narrativer blandt højreekstremister i Danmark.

Læs ”Vurdering af Terrortruslen mod Danmark 2021” her.


English press release:

Assessment of the Terrorist threat to Denmark 2021
Centre for Terror Analysis (CTA) has prepared a new “Assessment of the Terrorist threat to Denmark” for 2021. The terror threat to Denmark remains significant.
In the 2021 assessment of the terror threat to Denmark, CTA assesses that the terrorist threat to Denmark remains at the level of significant and that militant Islamists continue to pose the primary terror threat to Denmark. The threat mainly emanates from people sympathizing with and inspired by foreign militant Islamist terrorist groups, particularly Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaida (AQ). 

CTA notes that incidents seen in 2020, in Denmark and abroad, which were perceived as insults to Islam have added to the renewed focus on past and current cases of insults in Denmark. Thus, CTA assesses that cases of insults still have considerable potential as a motivating factor for militant Islamists.

“We assess that the added focus on cases of perceived insults during the past year may generally contribute to increasing the terrorist threat to Denmark and Danish interests abroad,” says Michael Hamann, Head of CTA, while emphasizing that “the cases may develop very differently, as some cases are overlooked, while others receive considerable attention from militant Islamists”.

CTA assesses that the terrorist threat to Denmark from right-wing extremists remains at the level of general.

“We are highly alert to the threat from right-wing extremists. The right-wing extremist threat primarily emanates from individuals and small groups which typically meet, become radicalized and find inspiration in right-wing extremist networks and virtual communities,” assesses Michael Hamann.

At the other end of the political spectrum, CTA assesses that the terrorist threat from left-wing extremists in Denmark remains at the level of limited. 

According to CTA, a number of other factors may also affect the terror threat to Denmark. 

“We have recently seen trends in Denmark and internationally which may impact our assessment of the terrorist threat to Denmark. This includes certain conspiracy theories and anti-state movements, which are not illegal but may contain violent threat potential that, subject to a legal assessment, could be characterized as terrorism,” says Michael Hamann.

The Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) underlines that, regardless of the area and level of the terror threat, terrorism can still strike suddenly and with no prior intelligence assessments or indications. PET continuously works to prevent terrorism in cooperation with national and international partners.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its influence on the terror threat to Denmark
CTA assesses that the COVID-19 pandemic is not an essential driver of terrorism in Denmark and that the pandemic, and the way it is handled, has not in itself changed the intent and capacity of militant Islamists or political extremists to commit terrorist attacks in Denmark. However, CTA considers it likely that the COVID-19 pandemic has been a contributing factor in strengthening existing anti-state narratives among right-wing extremists in Denmark.

Read “Assessment of the terror threat to Denmark 2021” here.